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The end of Hawaii’s Safe Travels program for domestic travelers later this month should create more opportunities for Hawaii to recoup visitor arrivals, which at year-end were still down nearly 35 % compared to 2019 before the pandemic.
The University of Hawaii’s Economic Research Organization predicts that arrivals, after a weak start to the year, will surpass last summer’s peak in the second quarter and reach 90% of their pre-COVID-19 level d end of the year.
UHERO has forecast visitor numbers to reach 9.5 million in 2023 – still well below the peak of 10.4 million visitors who arrived in Hawaii in 2019.
But two years to the day after the first case of COVID-19 in Hawaii, UHERO said “considerable risks remain, including surprises from COVID-19, Federal Reserve tightening and economic fallout from the invasion. Russian from Ukraine”.
Hawaii tourism officials are monitoring these potential headwinds, particularly with respect to international visitors, who have been mostly absent from Hawaii’s tourism market during the pandemic and have been a major drag on the recovery of the ‘industry.
The good news is that so far travel demand is up from domestic travellers, who reacted positively to Governor David Ige’s recent announcement that the Safe Travels program will end on March 25. From March 26, travelers from the mainland will no longer be required. to create a Safe Travels account, show their COVID-19 vaccination status, or take a pre-travel test while traveling to the Hawaiian Islands.
“Americans are wired to travel. It’s not in our DNA to stay in one place very long,” said Chris Kam, President and COO of OmniTrak.
Kam said about half of US travelers who took part in the company’s latest TravelTrakAmerica survey in February said they had no specific travel plans but were planning to travel within the next six months.
“Since February 2021, that number has gone from about a third of travelers to half of travelers,” he said. “But at the same time, we’re seeing a decline in perceptions about the affordability of travel. Americans want to travel; they’re very worried about what it’s going to cost them.
Kam said it was a positive sign that 5% of U.S. travelers surveyed said they were planning a vacation to Hawaii in the next six months, “meaning that demand for Hawaii is holding up, even as considerations for affordability of travel are on the rise”.
The end of Hawaii’s entry requirements for domestic travelers, along with the addition of more airline seats, should give the state’s visitor industry the tools it needs for a stronger rebound.
Kam said the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism has forecast domestic air seats this year to be 25% higher than in 2019 and nearly offset the drop in international air seats.
“The total number of seats in Hawaii was down only 0.7%,” Kam said. “It’s just amazing that airline seat projections show we’ll be less than 99% of 2019. It’s a testament to the resilience of travel.”
Duke Ah Moo, Hilton’s vice president and chief commercial officer in Hawaii and French Polynesia, said the company is “so happy that Hawaii’s restrictions are being lifted so that our community, our employees and our guests can start coming back. to a bit of normality. It has been two long years, and we certainly hope that we will see some positive results for the industry in the coming year. »
Hawaiian Airlines spokesman Alex Da Silva said Ige’s decision to end the Safe Travels program is encouraging for the state’s economic recovery, and Hawaiian expects demand for travel to Hawaii continues to recover.
Da Silva said the carrier is seeing “encouraging domestic bookings through spring break and into the summer as omicron concerns ease and overall travel conditions improve.”
The end of Safe Travels won’t make a difference to international travelers, who must still meet federal entry requirements, which include showing proof of an up-to-date vaccination and a pre-travel COVID-19 test. negative made on the day of the trip. .
The recent outbreak of COVID-19 in some Asian countries is also causing concern. However, UHERO said it expects travel restrictions to ease in the coming months, allowing a significant return of international visitors.
“International demand remains suppressed, but Hawaiian sees border restrictions starting to ease in Asia and Oceania,” Da Silva said. “International visitors are an indispensable part of a healthy tourist economy in Hawaii, and we look forward to the easing of travel restrictions in Hawaii’s major tourist markets.”
The wild card is the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which will likely contribute to higher inflation as well as higher gasoline, electricity and travel prices. Unfortunately, this comes at a time when Americans — really the only group of travelers to come to Hawaii in pre-pandemic numbers — are already questioning vacation costs.
Jerry Gibson, president of the Hawaii Hotel Alliance, said in the weeks and days leading up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Hawaii was seeing a promising acceleration in the domestic pace.
Further improvements are expected with the end of Safe Travels, which Gibson says “removes a lot of confusion on the inland side and makes traveling to Hawaii easier.”
However, Gibson cautions that some of Hawaii’s visitors, particularly those from Asia, have historically been sensitive to travel during geopolitical conflicts. Gibson said the uncertainty could push the expected recovery for Asian travelers, who make up about a quarter of Oahu travelers, from the second to third quarters.
“We have a lot of economic challenges with rising prices, and certainly people feel really bad about what’s going on with the war,” Gibson said. ” There is no doubt. It weighs on people’s feelings, what they want to do and their travel plans.
